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WEEK 6

BetUS Sportsbook 2008 Week 6 NFL Odds Update as of 10.9.08 5am Oakland NEW ORLEANS -7.5 Baltimore INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 Cincinnati NY JETS -6.5 Carolina TAMPA BAY -1.5 (-2.5) Detroit MINNESOTA -13.5 Chicago -2.5 ATLANTA Miami HOUSTON -3.5 St. Louis WASHINGTON -13.5 Jacksonville DENVER -3.5 Philadelphia -4.5 (-5.5) SAN FRANCISCO Dallas -5.5 ARIZONA Green Bay SEATTLE -2.5 New England SAN DIEGO -5.5 (-6.5) NY Giants -8.5 CLEVELAN

Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends ATS as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’:

All we need to do is look at the Dow to see how different things are from 2006. The NFL flashes back to 2006 this week. A year where the Washington Redskins lost SU, ATS to the St. Louis Rams, 0-4 ats in 2008 and are 3-11 ATS versus the NFC East, and the HOUSTON TEXANS started a 2-0 winning streak SU, 1-1 ATS versus the Miami Dolphins; the margin of victory by an average of 2.5 points per game. Two series at a crossroads of 1-1 ATS over the last three years. The Redskins entering 4-1 ATS in 2008.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

With a big loss in Washington, the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, who are weathering with Westbrook's lastet injury, welcome the sight of the San Francisco 49ers, who in getting outlasted by the Patriots find themselves at Home versus an Eagles team that last faced off with Nolan in 2006; Nolan 0-2 ATS versus Philadelphia in allowing the Eagles a whopping 40 points per game.
ADVANTAGE EAGLES

Both arriving off of big victories, the Baltimore Ravens, who are allowing 14 points per game in 2008 and seem to be favoring the trends in 2008, head back on the Road to face another nemesis in the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, who, including the 2006 playoffs, are 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups with the Ravens. Averaging only 11 points per game of offense, the Ravens D has had even more trouble stopping Manning, who powered 44 points at Home last year.
ADVANTAGE COLTS

FIRST LOOK

With the world consumed by Iraq in 2006, it was Parcells' Cowboys, #2 in offense with 30.2 points per game, that held a strangle hold on the ARIZONA CARDINALS, who in shocking Joe Public with a Martz style offensive assault last week, welcome the Boys into their home after the Cowboys struggled with both the Redskins and Bengals. Allowing the Cardinals only 11.5 points per game, the Cowboys have gone 2-0 ATS. Even more impressive has been the Cowboys offense that has run up an average of 31 points in outscoring the birds by an average of 18 points per game. Wade Phillips will look to continue his 1-0 run ATS versus the AFC West against Zona, who is pumping out 29.4 points per game.
ADVANTAGE COWBOYS

KING TRENDS

With Tampa Bay's bouncing this year over historic trends, the BUCCANEERS home field advantage regular plays in their favor except versus the week's opponent, the Carolina Panthers, tied for #3 in defense in allowing only 14 points per game. In one of the long running coaching rivalries, John Fox has taken 4 of 5 ATS from Gruden in Tampa Bay. Even more noteworthy is that the Panthers are 5-0 SU on the run. Outside of the hard fought 2006 battle, the Panthers have won by at least 7 points per game.
ADVANTAGE PANTHERS

If Joe Public is looking to try out yet another 'sure thing', it is here in Minnesota this week where the MINNESOTA VIKINGS return Home triumphant off Monday Night Football to face off one of the league's worst teams in 2008 in the Detroit Lions, who allow 36.7 points per game while managing only 16.7. The Vikings entering 5-0-1 ATS over the last three years in the series, including a 3-0 record ATS at Home; having defeated the Lions by 32 points last year, the closest margin of victory has been 9 points. Shut out last week, the Lions are averaging only 13 points of offense versus the Vikings over the last three seasons.
ADVANTAGE VIKINGS


© M.O. Productions 10.11.08

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WEEK 5

BetUS Sportsbook 2008 Week 5 NFL Odds Update as of 10.4.08 5am 31| Indianapolis -3.5 17 | HOUSTON 13 | Tennsse -2.5 (-3.5) 10 | BALTIMORE Tennessee -145 BALTIMORE +125 10 | San Diego -6.5 17 | MIAMI 00 | Kansas City 34 | CAROLINA -9.5 23 | Washington 17 | PHILLY -6.5 (-5.5) Washington +220 PHILADELPHIA -260 34 | Chicago -3.5 07 | DETROIT 27 | Atlanta 24 | GREEN BAY 06 | Seattle 44 | NY GIANTS -7.5 13 | Tampa Bay 16 | DENVER -3.5 30 | New England -3.5 21 | SAN FRANCISCO 17 | Buffalo 41 | ARIZONA -1.5 (-1.5) Buffalo +100 (-110) ARIZONA -120 (-110) 22 | Cincinnati 31 | DALLAS -16.5 (-17.5) 26 | Pittsburgh 21 | JACKS -4.5 (-4) Pittsburgh +170 JACKSONVILLE -210 30 | Minnesota 27 | NEW ORLEANS -3.5

Carib Sports Players Play Update as of 10.4.08 5am Titans 58% RAVENS 45% 4880 Bets Redskins 53% EAGLES 47% 5096 Bets Bills 53% CARDINALS 44% 5772 Bets Steelers 28% JAGUARS 66% 4856 Bets *RED=declining

Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends ATS as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’:

With AFC/NFC battles aplenty, historic trends are few and far between this week. While it may have been easy to digest the Ravens 3-1 ATS, and now 4-1 advantage ATS versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, or that the Texans own the Jaguars, wait until I tell you that Rod Marinelli and the Detroit Lions are 3-1 ATS. How about most recently 3-0 ATS versus the Chicago Bears. Entering as Underdogs of nearly 6 points per game, the Lions are even more impressive in their ability to go 2-0 SU in 2007.

DON’T BELIEVE THE MEDIA HYPE

Now wait until I tell you that we need to revisit the Texans this week. ‘That is right’. The Texans face off against the Indianapolis. As good as the Colts have been, this is a series has that given meaning to the words ‘home field advantage’; a series where the home team is 4-0 ATS over the last two years. While the Colts have been able to defeat the Texans by as many as 21 points at Home, the Texans, dogged by as many as 9 points, have been able to put over 25 points per game versus the Colts at Home under Kubiak to post a 1-1 record SU versus Indianapolis.

So you ask about my article highlighting the Ravens as the #2 team ATS in 2008. You ask whether they can shed their most recent 2-11 record ATS with 6 days or less rest, against the #1 team ATS in 2008, the Tennessee Titans? Arriving off a SU loss to Pittsburgh, the Ravens are 2-0 ATS over the last three seasons versus Jeff Fisher. What is even more impressive is that the Ravens average over 25 points per game as they steal victories in the Titans’ backyard.

FIRST LOOK

Under the smoke of Westbrook’s injury, the NFC East looks features another big matchup. While one can be distracted by the Redskins’ MNF upset in 2007, the Eagles enter 3-1 ATS in their last four games with the Redskins. Entering as 7 point Favorites in their last two Home games, the Eagles, who turned the series in their favor in 2006, look to keep their Home streak alive. With the margin of victory by at least 8 points in two of their three victories, the spread will mean little in this one.
ADVANTAGE EAGLES

KING TRENDS

With injuries weighing down the Pittsburgh Steelers, they must head to Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars, 22-9 ATS at Home off a win against a division rival since 1992, will look to parlay the AFC South’s Advantage ATS as they head home to face off with the Steelers, who under Del Rio are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus the Steelers. While strange things happen on Sunday Night, the Jaguars only have outscored the Steelers by 7 points per game, but shut them out 9-0 in their last matchup here in 2006.
ADVANTAGE JAGUARS


© M.O. Productions 10.2.08

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Tonight is the differnce between 'sink or swim' for The Director. Having gone 'legit', the Director looks to stay afloat in 2008. This game comes down to two players. Although Brees, 106.9 rating, is the engine, it is the emotional presence of Deuce McAllister, who picked up 73 yards last week. That is the reason the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS win. With the Vikings powering only 181.5 yards through the air, it will be too big a hill to climb to keep up with the Saints who are driving an amazing 414.3 offensive yards per game.
SAINTS -3

© M.O. Productions 10.6.08

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It is very interesting that the Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-10 ATS in Road games on grass over the last three years. Having struggled to pull out a victory in a bruising Monday Night game, the Steelers, who are also 5-13 ATS in Road games over the last three years, will continue to struggle on offense managing only 3.4 yards per play on 15 first downs per game.

Relying on its defense, the Steelers will struggle to keep up with a JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS offense that has powered 23 points per game on 4.6 yards per rush at Home this year. Having already faced 3 of the toughest AFC powerhouses in 2008, look for Garrard, 77.7 rating, and the defense line to come alive and exploit a battle weary Steeler team that was punished by Baltimore last week.
JAGUARS -4.5

© M.O. Productions 10.5.08

Having been seemingly tracking the games that Joe Public has been playing for the first four weeks, Week 5 finds us in the road less traveled where the Buffalo Bills are 11-2 ATS in games where the line is +3 to _3 over over the last three seasons, and 17-4 versus the AFC West since 1992. Powering a 4-0 record, the Bills continue to find ways to win by capitilzing on opponent's mistakes.

Lacking Berry, who has powered 3 sacks, and Boldin, whose 5 touchdowns and 27 receptions, are the ARIZONA CARDINALS' engine as well as opening for Breaston, Edwards wil look to exploit the Cardinals defense that is allowing balanced attacks to its opposition. With the Bills allowing only 160.5 passing yards per game, the Cardinals will have to rely on James to move the ball; a predicament similar to the straights he attempted to navigate in the Jets game. Instead, Marshawn Lynch will hammer away as Edwards looks for the big play to Evans, 23.7 yards per reception to put this one in the freezer.
Bills +1.5

© M.O. Productions 10.5.08

As noted in our handicapping forum, Fisher's Tennessee Titans are 9-2-1 ATS surrounding their bye week. Looking at the other side of the Steelers/Ravens Monday Night matchup, what the experts have failed to note is the BALTIMORE RAVENS enter 1-4 ATS after Monday Night, and 0-2 SU, ATS after playing at Pittsburgh over the last three seasons. Having already proven they can stop one of the top running backs in the league in Minnesota's Peterson, and the coaches playing the injury report to their advantage, Flacco, 65.9 rating, simply doesn't have the experience to win on the Road versus a team like the Titans.
Titans -2.5

© M.O. Productions 10.5.08

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WEEK 4

Dimeline Sportsbook 2008 Week 4 NFL Odds Update as of 9.27.08 5am 19 | Denver -9.5 (-9.5) 33 | KANSAS CITY Denver -440 KANSAS CITY +640 20 | Cleveland 12 | CINCINNATI -3.5 27 | Houston 30 | JACKSONVILLE -7 (-7) 35 | Arizona 56 | NY JETS -1 (-1) 17 | San Francisco 31 | NEW ORLEANS -5 (-6) 09 | Atlanta 24 | CAROLINA -6.5 (-7) 17 | Minnesota 30 | TENNESSEE -3 21 | Green Bay 30 | TAMPA BAY -1 (-1) 31 | Buffalo -9 (-9) 14 | ST. LOUIS 28 | San Diego -9 (-7.5) 18 | OAKLAND San Diego -330 Oakland +270 26 | Washington 24 | DALLAS -11 (-11.5) 20 | Philadelphia -3 24 | CHICAGO 20 | Baltimore 23 | PITTSBURGH -5 (-7.5)

Carib Sports Players Play Update as of 9.27.08 5am Broncos 86% CHIEFS 14% 7726 bets Chargers 90% RAIDERS 10% 7646 bets *RED=declining

Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’, and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS:

If you have enjoyed the tumultuous trip in the stock market, and the $700 billion bill in front of congress, then Jacksonville is where you should go. For even though the Texans have made it the premiere of both my Worst Defense list, and projected by statisticians to lose by 14.5+ points, funny things happen in this series. Like Jacksonville’s grasp over Indianapolis, the Texans are 3-1 ATS during the Kubiak era. Even more impressive is that they are 3-1 SU. Arriving as Dogs of 6-13.5 points, the Texans have won by as many as 20 points. The only good news for the Jaguars is their 20 point margin of victory in 2007.

DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

Just as Houston has been the thorn in Jacksonville’s side, the Washington Redskins have stung the Dallas Cowboys. Although times are different in that the Cowboys are powering 30 points on 440 total yards per game, the Skins are wearing the crown in this series with a 5-1 record ATS over their last six matchups. Even more impressive has been the Redskins 2-0 record ATS versus Wade Phillips in 2007, including a straight-up victory as 11 point Underdogs here last year.
ADVANTAGE REDSKINS

FIRST LOOK

Looking to take advantage of the worst team of the NFL, and the projected 27 points the St. Louis Rams are projected to lose by, you will need to turn your back on the New Orleans Saints. For it is the New Orleans Saints that will now face off with the 49ers, 2-1 ATS in their series over the last 5 years. By statistics alone, these two teams could not be more evenly matched. However, the Saints own a 2-0 record ATS in the their last two in their series since Nolan’s arrival. Not only has Nolan lost by over 21 points per game, he has only been able to manage 10 points per game in these matchups. If there was ever a game for New Orleans to close the holes in their defense that have allowed 27+ points per game on 392 total yards per game, it is here.
ADVANTAGE SAINTS

KING TRENDS

I believe this is the third year of my poems about ‘the rich and the poor’ in the AFC West. This could not be truer than in Kansas City. With a Royal surprise, the Denver Broncos are not only the top ranked offense with 38 points per game on 432 total yards per game, but have busted two long time trends already in 2008. They head to Kansas City to play the Chiefs, one of the Director's Top 5 Worst Rated Teams, where they are 2-0 ATS in the last two; 2-0 SU in those contests as well, Denver has allowed only 9 points per game and cracked an average winning margin of 25 points.
ADVANTAGE BRONCOS

If you too listened to the hype instead of your little voice in Week 3, you can still head to Oakland where the Chargers arrive off a monster victory at Home, 9-1 ATS versus Oakland in their last 10 matchups; the Chargers powering a 5-0 record ATS in Oakland during the run. Having won as 9.5+ Favorites in 2007, the Chargers’ #2 ranked offense by points scored per game is projected by statisticians to win by a 10+ margin of victory. Even with Kiffin on the ropes, it will be difficult to turn the tide with the Raiders managing only 15+ points per game in 2007. This will be one hell of a tide with Brees’ firepower causing the biggest waves.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS


© M.O. Productions 9.25.08

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There are five trends working against the Baltimore Ravens in this me, including that they are 1-8 ATS since 11/02 as a Dog after a game in which they had at least 150 yards rushing. Both of these teams playing 2 of the 5 worst teames in the NFL. Like Atlanta's Ryan, Flacco, 55.7 rating, will paly his first Away game. With both these teams relying on suffocating rush defense; the Ravens allowing only 71.5 rushing yards per game for 3 yards per play. While the Steelers allow only 64.3 rushing yards per game for 3.9 yards per play.

Since both of these teams rely on power on rushing attacks, both quarterbacks will ultimately need to go the air to make a difference. Given that Roethlsiberger, 98.6 rating, will be able to make adjustments after the loss to the Eagles, the Steelers should be able to put up enough field goals to squeeze out a win in this one.
STEELERS -5

© M.O. Productions 9.29.08

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Having broken down versus the Bills, the Raiders, who may very well be the headless, Kiffinless Raiders soon face off against the Chargers, who appear more like a hurricane than a football team. Having powered 894 passing yards and 9 touchdowns in 2009, Rivers, who has a 124.8 rating has to be looking forward to the 26th ranked passing defense allowing 232.2 passing yards per game in 2009. It is this passing, not the rushing attack of Tomlinson and Sproles that is averaging 97.3 yards per game that is the offense attack this year. With the Raiders defense allowing 104 rushing yards per game, there will be plenty of room to continue their success.

This is troubling for the Raiders. Although their rushing attack is averaging 5.1 yards per rush, and will find some holes in the Chargers D that is allowing 109.3 yards per game, it is Russell's passing attack, 87.5 rating, that never takes chances down the field that will struggle trying to advatange of the Chargers 31st ranked passing D that is allowing 284.7 passing yards per game.
Chargers -9

© M.O. Productions 9.27.08

Could the December loss where the Chiefs only mustered 7 first downs still in the Chiefs head? If Kansas City thought their hands were full last year, or last week, they haven't seen anything yet. Averaging 4.4 yards per rush, the Broncos rushing attack has to be chomping at the bit to face off with the Chiefs rushing defense that is sacrificing 204 rushing yards per game; sacrificing 6 touchdowns in the process. The real question we will find out is whether the Chiefs 4th ranked passing defens is really strong in allowing only 153 yards passing per game, or is it because nobody has had to head to the air.

The biggest challenge is that the Chiefs D line has piled only 2 sacks. The answer will be in Cutler's 8.46 yards per attempt on a 110.6 rating. With Denver able to get out to a quick lead, the Chiefs will be trying yet another hand at quarterback against the Broncos 32nd rated passing defense, allowing 315.7 yards passing per game. However, powering 5 sacks in the process. Although Johnson, who averages 5 yards per carry last week, should be able to take advantage of the Broncos rushing D, allowing 106 rushing yards per game, the lack of the ability to go 'tit for tat' leaves them short again in this one.
Broncos -9.5

© M.O. Productions 9.27.08

Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’, and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS:

As the economy shakes, fans will look to the stability of long term Key NFL Trends as they never have before. If you want stability, you will want to steer away from I have to speak to the crossroads of Dallas and GREEN BAY. For those who recall Rodgers premiere and loss last year in Dallas, you may not remember the Packers victory ATS in Lambeau back in 2004 41-20. 1-1 ATS, this game is definitely the crossroads of their rivalry.

DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

Another series at the crossroads heads back to Washington where the Redskins D, will work to continue their run over the last three seasons of holding the Cardinals to an average of 15 points per game. 1-1 ATS and 2-0 SU, the Redskins who escaped in 2004 with a 4 point victory, and a 2 point victory in 2008, will hope they can muster up more than the 19 points of offense a game that gives the Cardinals an opportunity for victory.

If there was ever a division at the crossroads, it is the AFC South where the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, who in pulling out a flashy last minute victory in week 2, face off against the Jaguars, who in losing their second game of 2008, arrive 2-1 ATS, yet 0-3 SU versus the Colts in Indianapolis over the last three years. Averaging as 7+ point Underdogs, the question remains, ‘Can they keep it close?’. Having averaged 13 to 53 points, anything is possible in these matchups.

FIRST LOOK

Facing off against two of the NFL’s behemoths to start the season, the Cleveland Browns will welcome the sight of the BALTIMORE RAVENS. Having only managed an average of 6.5 points in their first two games with Dallas and Pittsburgh, the Browns arrive in Baltimore where they are 2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU over the last two years. Even more impressive is their 5-0 run ATS in their last five matchups with the Ravens. Better settle in for the afternoon as these teams have been separated by only 1.5 points in their two matchups here in Baltimore.
ADVANTAGE BROWNS

KING TRENDS

Fans will be tempted to look to divisional rivalries this week as the Miami Dolphins arrive in New England. Favored by as many as 22 points at Home last year versus the PATRIOTS’ Cassel, , will look to keep the team’s winning streak alive, a streak that has seen the Patriots win ATS in the team’s first matchup of the season with the Dolphins five years in a row. ‘Hard to believe that the Patriots were actually Underdogs of 6 points back in 2003’. Although Belichick is 2-2 ATS versus the Fish over the last two years, they have outscored Miami by an average of 15 points per game in their first meeting of the year.
ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS

Can’t get your hands on Treasury Bills, you will want to head to Tennessee where Jeff Fisher will face off with the Houston Texans. 5-1 ATS, 6-0 SU, in their last six matchups, the TENNESSE TITANS defense, allowing only 202 yards per game, will look to keep their winning ways alive. Having scored 28 points per game in their last two matchups at Home with the Texans in this series, while allowing an average of 21, this game will not be for the ‘weak of heart’.
ADVANTAGE TITANS

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Prior to last night’s beating of the Packers, I must admit I had much more confidence and safety in going in as a big Underdog. There was far less fear in the Underdog NY Jets taking on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at Home, who are 8-1 ATS as Home Favorites of 7.5-10 points. With both of these teams arriving undefeated on the Monday Night Football over the last three years, I have found my safety and solitude in Brett Favre, who always seems to shine under the lights. Also, there is security in the Jets arriving 5-1 ATS off a Divisional Rival over the last three seasons.

With the Chargers commanding the 31st ranked pass defense, allowing 437 yards per game, and only managing two sacks, Favre, 104.1 rating, will definitely be headed to the air. The Jets D that has put up 7 sacks in allowing only 4 yards per play will need to ground a Chargers offense, whose Brees is powering 122.5 rating on 9.9 yards per attempt. The good news for the Jets is the questionable health of LT and Gates. Having allowed only 76.5 rushing yards per game, a slowed LT and Sproles will offer up the possibility of the turnover, and only chance for a SU victory.

However, this game comes down to one man, and one coin toss. Look for Jones and Washington to continue to pump out their 4.5 yards per carry, Brett Farve to be flinging every which way but loose, and this one to come down to the wire.
NY Jets +9

© M.O. Productions 9.21.08

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It is hard to have a good feel for the Houston Texans, 5-12 ATS on the Road, and 1-4 ATS as an Underdog of 3.5-7 points over the last three seasons, after only one game. However, with only 234 total yards in their opener, there doesn't seem to be many differences from last year. Having had to cancel Week 2, the Texans are back on the Road versus a Tennessee Titans team that has picked up steam going 2-0 ATS. What will be most troubing for the Texans, whose Shaub was sacked 5 times, and intercepted twice, is the Titans D, who have collected 8 sacks thus far. Allowing only 3.5 yards per play, the Titans defense has smothered the opposition allowing only 4 rushing first downs.

What was originally seen as a concern at quaterback for Tennessee is not one yet as the big games are still around the corner. Instead, Collins has settled in, 109.5 rating, and established balanced drives off Johnson's power rushing attack, 5.9 yards per rush. Having also been able to step out of the backfield as a receiver, Johnson has created a security blanket for Collins, and allowed him to find big plays to Scalfe. Expect to see the same against the Texans as Fisher wears them down.
TITANS -4.5

© M.O. Productions 9.20.08

Even I was questioning Cassel on the Friday before the Regular Season. However, having been able to avoid the mistakes, and use Moss, 17.3 yards per catch, at critical times, the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS have been able to collect two big wins. Facing off with the Dolphins, who are 7-17 ATS versus Conference Opponents, and 0-7 ATS in September over the last three seasons, there are few reasons why this should not be another victory. Although the Patriots have managed only 18 points per game, and only 5.1 yards per play, the Dolphins have managed even less. With Pennington, 77.7 rating, averaging only 5.76 yards per attempt, and a rushing attack in Brown and Williams averaging only 2.6 yards per rush, there is little offensive threat from the Fish.

The surprise for the Patriots this year has been arrival of Jordan, whose 5.2 yards per rush has been the fire. Look for plenty of passes to Faulk out of the backfield, and short angles to Welker. Having allowed only 8 rushing first downs while the Dolphins have only managed 8, look for Belichick to force Pennington the air to try to stay in this one; a very dangerous proposition agains the strength of the Patriots at Home.
PATRIOTS -13

© M.O. Productions 9.20.08

Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’, and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS:

It is interesting that 2008 has already seen its first ‘flip flop’. If there was ever a trend that may be the next flip it is this week’s matchup with the BUCCANEERS and the Falcons. In 2005, the two teams split their matchups ATS. The falcons go 2-0 ATS in 2006, and the Bucs go 2-0 ATS in 2007. It looks like the pendulum is ready to swing back in 2008 after Reggie Bush’s crushing breakaway to defeat the Bucs in Week 1.

DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

While Favre looked sharp in their opener, if he has looked over the historical record, he will not like the looks of Cassell and the Patriots at Home. For this is another series where the visiting team has been the winner. Having gone 2-0 ATS in New England in this series, the Jets have gone a surprising 0-2 ATS in New York. Favored by an average of 6+ points in their losses, the Jets have come close while losing
SU. Can Favre flip flop this one?

Having turned back the Raiders after going 0-4 ATS in their last four matchups, the Broncos will look to flip flop the trend versus the Chargers. While the Broncos shined on Monday Night Football, The Chargers arrive 4-0 ATS in the last four games against Denver. The real question is whether the Chargers can keep their streak alive with a number of critical injuries off a last minute loss to Carolina in Week 1?

FIRST LOOK

‘Believe it or not’ the Chiefs have not covered the spread versus the Raiders at Home since Dick Vermeil’s 2002 campaign. ‘That’s right’. Favored by over 5 points per game, the Chiefs have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups with the Raiders here in Kansas City. Having faced the injury to Johnson during the 2007 season, the Chiefs may be stymied again with the injury to Croyle that leaves Huard at the helm.
ADVANTAGE RAIDERS

With the trend versus the Ravens going up in smoke, Marvin Lewis will have the numbers in his favor again as he enters against the Tennessee Titans, who have not beaten the Bengals since 2004. After an impressive week 1 effort, the Titans’ Young may have his mommy play in his place. 2-0 ATS in their last two games versus the Titans, the Bengals won by a 29 point margin here last year. The Titans arrive 0-9 ATS since 2005 when the line is 3 or less points versus a Non-Divisional Opponent.
ADVANTAGE BENGALS

KING TRENDS

If there is one thing McCarthy owns since his arrival in Green Bay, it has been the Detroit Lions. 4-0 ATS in his four matchups, not only have the Pack gone 4-0 SU in those games, but have outscored the Lions by an average of 10 points per game. So goes Monday Night, so goes the following week. During his reign, McCarthy arrives 1-0 ATS after victories, and 0-2 ATS after losses. The Lions arrive 0-6 ATS since 2003 the week after a game where they have had 3 times as many passing yards as rushing yards.
ADVANTAGE PACKERS

After embarrassing the Texans in Week 1, the Steelers arrive in Cleveland where they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 matchups here. While there was hope for a flip flop in 2007, Tomlin’s 27 points margin of victory sealed the continuation of the Browns’ misery in this series.
ADVANTAGE STEELERS

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This one is simple mathematics. The Philadelphia Eagles are 10-2 ATS as Underdogs over the last three seasons, and 2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU, versus the DALLAS COWBOYS in Dallas over the last two seasons; entering averaging as an 8+ point Underdog in each matchup. As I have written about for years, so goes Westbrook, so goes the Eagles. While the sportswriters love to tout the Cowboys as well as Jones and Barber, the 4.8 yards per carry for Westbrook thus far in 2008 is an indicator that McNabb, 131 rating, is again pushing a balanced attack. Thankfully, the Rams allowed the Eagles 414 passing yards in Week 1, and gave Reid plenty of time to ready his corp for the Cowboys, who enter 0-3 ATS on Monday Night Football over the last three years.

As it has been in the past, this one, however, will come down to defense. With both defenses allowing less than 205 offensive yards in Week 1, the Eagles, who have already punched 4 sacks this year, will look to quell Romo, who has only put an average of 6.5 points per game in their last two in Dallas versus the Eagles. Last year Romo was sacked 4 times, handed over 3 interceptions, and managed only 240 offensive yards. The Cowboys will have too large an uphill climb trying to flip flop the trend.
EAGLES +7

© M.O. Productions 9.14.08

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If there were any questions about Rodgers, they were answered last week with 115.5 rating. He will be happy to face off with the Lions struggling passing D that was 31st in 2007, and allowed an 69% completion percentage in Week 1 to Ryan. With Jennings averaging 18.2 yards per catch based on his breakaway plays, the Lions D will be spread thin. This will put even more pressure on a Lions rushing defense that gave up long, medium, and short TD runs on 315 rushing yards to the Falcons. While you may think it was amazing that the Lions allowed 7.6 yards per rush in their opener, it is Green Bay's Grant's 7.7 yards per rush versus the Vikings fierce D that has fans taking notice. Now the Packers head on the road where they are 12-4 ATS on the Road over the last three seasons.

With its the Packers D giving up 5.1 yards per play for 355 yards passing, the Lions fans could hope for a shoot out, but with the Lions allowing 54 sacks in 2007, and 3 in their opener, the Kitna will struggle to find time to locate holes in a defense that allowed only 168 yards passing to the Vikings. Grounded, the Lions will have to rely on a rushing attack that could power only 62 rushing yards in their opener. Having only faced 9 third downs in the opener, Kitna, 103.3 rating, will fail again here.
PACKERS -3

© M.O. Productions 9.13.08

Isn't simply too hard to resist the Falcons after Turner's 220 yard rushing performance. Sure the Bucs held the Saints to only 3.7 yards per carry, but with Brooks injured, there are a lot of questions here. The combintation of Turner and Norwood is reminiscent of the ol' Philly duo of Staley and Westbrook that ran over opponents. The bigger trouble for Tampa Bay is the confidence that Matt Ryan built in the opener. Tampa Bay's number one defense not only was held at bay by the Falcons at the line in the opener, but they were pushed around for 337 total yards.

With each of his receivers hit for big plays, Ryan, 137 rating, should be able to exploit the Bucs for big plays. Most troubling for Gruden is his sputtering offense. If the Falcons can get ahead early, it will be difficult for Garcia, 76.3 rating, and the Buces, 16.7% 3rd down completion percentage, to catch up. Having managed only 9.3 yards per catch, Galloway may just be unable to deliver. Powering 9.1 yards per rush, Tampa's Graham, will be part of an ol' fashion foot battle in this one and come up one foot short.
Falcons +7

© M.O. Productions 9.13.08

Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’, and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS:

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

For those of us who ended on a high note with the NY GIANTS, defensive injuries on both sides of the ball may just sideline fans for the opener in New York. The Giants also enter having traded Jeremy Shockey, who had critical catches in both of the 2007 matchups against the Washington Redskins. It was these very Redskins who in Week 14 shocked the Giants after going 0-3 ATS in their three previous trips to New York. The Giants will be looking to keep their 6-0 run ATS in their last six games (including the playoffs) they have been on since this upset.

For those of us who headed to Jacksonville a year ago to kickoff the season, 'Beware!' A year ago, many of us felt just as confident prior the Jaguars outscoring the Titans by only 3 points. The Jaguars able to only pump out 10 points on their worst rushing performance of the year. In the five years that Del Rio has coached the Jaguars only twice have they have entered Tennessee as a Favorite, and both have ended in losses ATS (It should be kept in mind that in 2007, the injury to Garrard did leave them in Gray's hands).

FIRST LOOK

As I sit here reading about Week 2 in the USA SPORTS WEEKLY, one thing sticks in my head, the possibility that Gruden and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could face off against the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS without Galloway. 5-1 ATS in their last six, 5-0 ATS in their last six matchups in New Orleans, Gruden has proved on thing, that no matter who the quarterback is, he can defeat the the Saints. His defense ranking in the Top 3 in 8 of 11 categories in 2007. That said, under Garcia and McCown, the key factor is Galloway, who averaged 145 receiving yards per game versus the Saints in 2007. Thus, we will all be watching the Official NFLOne.com Injury Report closely.
ADVANTAGE BUCCANEERS

KING TRENDS

Sure it is tempting to be concerned with the MIAMI DOLPHINS allowing only 10.3 points per game while the NY Jets only pumped out 62 rushing yards per game this preseason. Isn't it almost too difficult to resist Favre facing off against the Dolphins, who are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine matchups with NY. 1-9 ATS in their last ten Home games in their matchups with NY, the Dolphins again rely on Rickey Williams for their power rushing attack. With Taylor's departure (11 sacks in 2007), the Jets Favre should be able to finally light up the skies along side a rushing attack that averaged 150 rushing yards per game versus the Dolphins in 2007. While the Dolphins are known to come out strong on opening day, their 0-5-2 record ATS most recently in September, and 2-12 run ATS as a dog of 4 or less points, Parcells will have to call the Jets 'King' in this one.
ADVANTAGE NY JETS

It was only last year that Matt Leinart, who could only end up with 2 touchdowns in 5 games played, would take down the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. Escaping with a win, one thing is for sure, in this series, through both Green, and now Whisenhunt, the Away team, who is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 matchups, is King. Ranked last in almost every offensive category, and injuries to Battle and Lelie (who has now been cut), this preseason, the 37 year old Warner should be able to keep the run alive; Warner pumping out 484 passing yards in their loss in San Francisco in 2007.
ADVANTAGE CARDINALS

There are three words to kickoff the 2008 season, 'Ocho, Cinco, and ten'. 10 points, the average points per game the Bengals managed this preseason. 'Word to the wise'. Like the Jets over the Dolphins, one thing is true in the 'best of times' and the 'worst of times', the Cincinnati Bengals, who launched my 11-5-1 record ATS on Monday Night in 2007, have the BALTIMORE RAVENS' number. Having averaged only 63 rushing yards per game, the Bengals still went 2-0 ATS versus the Ravens in 2007, and increased to 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups. With a rookie coach, and a potential rookie to rookie in Flacco to Rice, Marvin Lewis will be hoping that Reed is indeed sidelined for game 1, and will work to get ahead> Once ahead, the Bengals will look to continue to force the 6 offensive turnovers per game that were all but a golden ticket for the Bengals to be 'King' in this matchup in 2007.
ADVANTAGE BENGALS


© M.O. Productions 9.3.08

Monday Night Subscription

So many opinions. So many questions. Two teams who struggle on Monday Night Football. One thing is fact. Unbelievably, through ‘thick and thin’ times, the OAKLAND RAIDERS have been able to beat the Denver Broncos ATS to the tune of 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups. Have the Broncos, 1-6 ATS in September over the last three seasons, stuck with Shanahan too long? With Marshall’s suspension for game 1 for an off-season circus, Cutler, who only managed 16 completions in last year’s late season loss to the Raiders will rely on Scheffler all night.

Considering that the Raiders were able to put up 34 points here last year with 4 turnovers on a combined effort of McCown & Russell, having won the game last year on a steady dose of Fargas with 140 rushing yards, expect to see plenty of Fargas and McFadden this evening. With critical injuries to the Broncos’ defensive line, expect holes to appear in a rushing defense that was ranked 30th in 2007. Also, don’t be surprised to see some big plays to Lelie, who will be hungry to take advantage of a Broncos defense that cut loose Lynch, its long time spiritual leader. For the first time, surprising the experts, the Raiders start with a victory over the Broncos, who are 2-10 ATS versus the division, and 5-15 ATS as favorites over the last three seasons.
RAIDERS +3

© M.O. Productions 9.6.08

If there is one thing that can be said for the Minnesota Vikings, it is that they are 4-1 ATS in September over the last three seasons. Of course, they are 1-2 ATS on Monday Night. Like the Jaguars that proceeded them yesterday, the numbers always speak louder than the reporter’s words. Having been impressed with Rodgers 201 passing yards at Dallas last year, the GREEN BAY PACKERS will look to exploit a Vikings D ranked last in the NFL in 2007 in passing yards per game that allowed an average of 347 passing yards per game to Favre in their two matchups in 2007.

Allowing only 19 sacks, Rodgers should have plenty of time to play. While much has been written about the Vikings unstoppable rushing attack, until they can improve on the 86 rushing yards they put up here last year, the crown remains in Green Bay’s hands. Since Jackson was not at the helm in either of their two matchups last year, it is all speculation as to the ability of Jackson to make enough big plays to Berrian to neutralize the 12th ranked Packers D that powered 36 sacks in 2007.

Instead, we will take the ‘bird in the hand’, and vote for the Pack.
PACKERS -2.5

© M.O. Productions 9.6.08

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How many times a year ago did I write about how Manning gets all the press, but the COLTS' top ranked passing defense, led by Freeney and Sanders are the true backbone and spark. Running the Colts offense is like riding a bike for Manning. The real security for Manning is a rushing attack in Addai, Keith, and the return of Rhodes that put up 164 rushing yards on opening day last year versus the Saints.

The real story in this one is the Bears' sale of both Berrian and Muhammad, who as part of a struggling 30th ranked passing attack in 2007, averaged over 13 yards per catch. While Orton didn't make a lot of mistakes in 2007, projected to have the worst day of any quarterback on opening day, his short passing attack, an attack that will be relying on rookie Forte out of the backfield, should lead to plenty of punts, and give the Colts plenty of short fields to work with.
COLTS -9.5

© M.O. Productions 9.6.08

In a week that is always unpredictable no matter what the handicappers tout, isn't it almost impossible to resist Brett Favre. With Favre voted captain, a NY Jets offense that was ranked at the bottom with 188.5 yards passing per game, has a chance to shine versus one of the weakest pass rushing teams less Taylor and his 11 sacks he contributed in 2007. Having won on the arm of both Clemens and Pennington in 2007, the addition of Favre should crank up a rushing attack that averaged over 150 yards rushing per game in their matchups in 2007. With McCareins big day playing into last year's victory here, Crotchery will have to play big to win in this rivarlry.

Having held the Dolphins to only 37 rushing yards in their last trip to NY, the addition of Jenkins, Pace, and Ghoulston should improve the Jets 29th ranked rushing defense, and push Pennnington to the air where he regularly flirts with the interception. With Favre relishing these games of 'Survivor', Tony Sparano will have a diffiult time outcalling Favre, and calming Pennington, who will have revenge on the mind from the opening whistle.
NY Jets -3

© M.O. Productions 9.6.08